French Police Investigate Suspicious Bets on Ballon d’Or Top Five
French authorities are investigating a series of unusually successful bets on the men’s Ballon d’Or after 12 accounts on the prediction market Polymarket reportedly forecast the exact order of the award’s top five finishers. The wagers have raised questions about possible insider information, the security of confidential voting results and the oversight of online prediction markets.
According to French law-enforcement sources who spoke anonymously to The Athletic, the accounts collectively placed bets worth about €250,000, or approximately $281,000. They reportedly made close to €200,000 in profit—an exceptional return that has drawn scrutiny from investigators.
The bettors correctly predicted the full ranking: Harry Kane in first place, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. Getting one winner right can be difficult; accurately calling the order of five players made the activity stand out. One source told The Athletic that the way the accounts managed their positions on the market added to suspicions that the bets may have been based on information unavailable to the public.
How the investigation began
French outlet Upside first reported the betting activity, and The Athletic later confirmed details with sources familiar with the inquiry. The reported wagers were placed before the Ballon d’Or results were officially announced, prompting questions about whether confidential information had been leaked ahead of the ceremony.
Sources familiar with the events say France Football, the magazine that organises the award, was alerted to potential irregularities before the result had been confirmed publicly. After the winners were announced, the organisation began its own review and contacted France’s Central Racing and Gaming Service, known as the SCCJ. The agency is responsible for policing gambling-related matters and is now examining the circumstances surrounding the bets.
The timing matters because the Ballon d’Or winner is determined through a voting process involving selected journalists. The result is not simply a public contest or a market forecast: until the official announcement, the final ranking is treated as confidential. Investigators will therefore need to establish whether the successful prediction was the product of chance, analysis of publicly available information, or access to restricted details.
France Football says award integrity is a priority
A Ballon d’Or spokesperson told The Athletic that protecting the award’s integrity is a priority for France Football. The spokesperson stressed that the winner is chosen through an independent vote and said the organisation is taking allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent betting seriously.
France Football is working to file a complaint with the relevant police authorities, the spokesperson added. Because the inquiries are continuing, the organisation has declined to provide further details. The investigation has not established that any individual involved in the voting process shared confidential information, and the reported betting activity should not be treated as proof of wrongdoing.
That distinction is important. A precise prediction, even one involving the top five in the correct order, may look suspicious without demonstrating how the bettors obtained their information. Authorities will likely examine account activity, the timing and size of wagers, any connections between bettors and people involved in the award, and whether the accounts behaved in a coordinated way.
Why prediction markets are under scrutiny
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell positions linked to the likelihood of future events. In this case, participants could wager on the Ballon d’Or outcome, with potential returns changing as market expectations shifted. Supporters argue that these platforms can aggregate information and offer a real-time measure of public expectations. Critics, however, warn that markets involving confidential or easily manipulated outcomes can create opportunities for people with privileged access to profit.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have faced growing debate over how they should be regulated, particularly when their markets involve sport, politics or other high-profile events. Rules differ by jurisdiction, and questions remain over how platforms should verify users, monitor suspicious trading and respond when betting patterns suggest that some participants may possess non-public information.
Sports betting adds another layer of complexity. A market tied to an award may not resemble a conventional match wager, but it still depends on information connected to sport and can attract large sums. If users can profit from confidential voting results, the concern extends beyond the fairness of one prediction market: it could undermine confidence in the award itself and in the people responsible for protecting the process.
A wider test for football’s integrity
The Ballon d’Or investigation comes amid broader disputes over prediction markets and sports-related betting. Several U.S. states have taken legal action concerning the role of these platforms in sports wagering, with cases expected to reach the country’s Supreme Court. Those disputes reflect a wider challenge for regulators: deciding where prediction markets fit within existing gambling laws and how to address the risks of insider trading.
For football, the issue is especially sensitive because trust depends on the perception that competitions and awards are decided fairly. The Ballon d’Or is one of the sport’s most prominent individual honours, and speculation about a leak can quickly spread among fans, players and clubs—even before investigators have established what happened.
The French inquiry will now seek to determine whether the bets were simply an extraordinary prediction or evidence of a breach of confidentiality. Until authorities complete their work, the central questions remain unanswered: who placed the wagers, what information they relied on, and whether the award’s voting process was compromised. The outcome could influence not only the handling of this case, but also how prediction markets and football-related betting are monitored in the future.
